Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 03 2020 | 4225 | 31211 | 145 | 25 | 1168 | 1489 |
| November 04 2020 | 4316 | 31442 | 148 | 28 | 1174 | 1533 |
| November 05 2020 | 4556 | 31717 | 151 | 28 | 1236 | 1706 |
| November 06 2020 | 4716 | 32083 | 151 | 30 | 1274 | 1775 |
| November 07 2020 | 4897 | 32325 | 157 | 31 | 1366 | 1840 |
| November 08 2020 | 5036 | 32453 | 159 | 31 | 1380 | 1894 |
| November 09 2020 | 5131 | 32627 | 162 | 31 | 1393 | 1811 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 5.1 | 3.7% | 51 | 0.44% | 69 | 0.6% |
| 10-19 | 27 | 21.3 | 14% | 195 | 1.43% | 257 | 1.89% |
| 20-29 | 26 | 31.9 | 21.3% | 297 | 1.42% | 376 | 1.8% |
| 30-39 | 16 | 25.6 | 17.4% | 243 | 1.79% | 316 | 2.32% |
| 40-49 | 12 | 19.7 | 12.6% | 175 | 1.67% | 220 | 2.1% |
| 50-59 | 7 | 19.1 | 13% | 181 | 1.44% | 243 | 1.94% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 11.4 | 8% | 112 | 0.97% | 153 | 1.33% |
| 70+ | 4 | 13.9 | 10% | 139 | 1.33% | 177 | 1.69% |
| All ages | 95 | 148.0 | 100% | 1393 | 1.33% | 1811 | 1.73% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 03 2020 | 2128 | 19511 | 73 | 24 | 731 | 998 |
| November 04 2020 | 2260 | 19647 | 76 | 24 | 863 | 1045 |
| November 05 2020 | 2434 | 19779 | 79 | 26 | 901 | 1155 |
| November 06 2020 | 2604 | 19974 | 82 | 26 | 1023 | 1286 |
| November 07 2020 | 2713 | 20102 | 83 | 29 | 1028 | 1316 |
| November 08 2020 | 2753 | 20170 | 84 | 29 | 964 | 1356 |
| November 09 2020 | 2800 | 20309 | 84 | 31 | 935 | 1267 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 4 | 3.4 | 2.9% | 27 | 0.35% | 40 | 0.52% |
| 10-19 | 9 | 7.3 | 7.3% | 68 | 0.81% | 98 | 1.17% |
| 20-29 | 5 | 16.3 | 14.2% | 133 | 1.87% | 169 | 2.38% |
| 30-39 | 6 | 21.0 | 18.9% | 177 | 2.11% | 232 | 2.76% |
| 40-49 | 5 | 21.1 | 19% | 178 | 2.29% | 233 | 3% |
| 50-59 | 9 | 19.3 | 17% | 159 | 1.64% | 226 | 2.33% |
| 60-69 | 8 | 14.0 | 13.2% | 123 | 1.46% | 166 | 1.97% |
| 70+ | 1 | 7.1 | 7.5% | 70 | 0.98% | 103 | 1.45% |
| All ages | 47 | 109.6 | 100% | 935 | 1.45% | 1267 | 1.96% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 03 2020 | 1424 | 12656 | 63 | 8 | 454 | 597 |
| November 04 2020 | 1494 | 12789 | 64 | 8 | 478 | 636 |
| November 05 2020 | 1586 | 12839 | 65 | 8 | 524 | 691 |
| November 06 2020 | 1685 | 13006 | 67 | 11 | 592 | 754 |
| November 07 2020 | 1797 | 13074 | 70 | 11 | 665 | 827 |
| November 08 2020 | 1861 | 13159 | 70 | 11 | 683 | 845 |
| November 09 2020 | 1919 | 13205 | 71 | 11 | 696 | 857 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 3.4 | 4% | 28 | 0.52% | 35 | 0.64% |
| 10-19 | 7 | 8.9 | 11.1% | 77 | 1.42% | 93 | 1.71% |
| 20-29 | 10 | 12.1 | 14.2% | 99 | 2.19% | 123 | 2.72% |
| 30-39 | 4 | 11.0 | 14.4% | 100 | 1.84% | 126 | 2.32% |
| 40-49 | 9 | 12.6 | 16.4% | 114 | 2.29% | 134 | 2.69% |
| 50-59 | 12 | 12.0 | 15.8% | 110 | 1.62% | 137 | 2.02% |
| 60-69 | 7 | 9.4 | 12.5% | 87 | 1.37% | 106 | 1.67% |
| 70+ | 7 | 6.4 | 11.6% | 81 | 1.28% | 107 | 1.69% |
| All ages | 58 | 75.9 | 100% | 696 | 1.54% | 857 | 1.89% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 03 2020 | 4740 | 33696 | 96 | 23 | 715 | 872 |
| November 04 2020 | 4910 | 34026 | 99 | 23 | 827 | 1003 |
| November 05 2020 | 5035 | 34278 | 101 | 26 | 932 | 1074 |
| November 06 2020 | 5174 | 34708 | 101 | 26 | 987 | 1190 |
| November 07 2020 | 5391 | 34865 | 103 | 26 | 1135 | 1366 |
| November 08 2020 | 5469 | 35062 | 103 | 26 | 1103 | 1386 |
| November 09 2020 | 5535 | 35190 | 104 | 26 | 1062 | 1432 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 3.0 | 2.2% | 23 | 0.19% | 34 | 0.29% |
| 10-19 | 10 | 14.9 | 11.6% | 123 | 0.74% | 169 | 1.02% |
| 20-29 | 13 | 26.4 | 20.6% | 219 | 1.03% | 312 | 1.47% |
| 30-39 | 6 | 17.4 | 14% | 149 | 1.1% | 192 | 1.41% |
| 40-49 | 8 | 18.3 | 14.3% | 152 | 1.12% | 209 | 1.54% |
| 50-59 | 10 | 22.1 | 16.9% | 180 | 1.27% | 236 | 1.66% |
| 60-69 | 13 | 16.3 | 12.2% | 130 | 0.92% | 167 | 1.18% |
| 70+ | 4 | 10.1 | 8.1% | 86 | 0.66% | 113 | 0.87% |
| All ages | 66 | 128.6 | 100% | 1062 | 0.9% | 1432 | 1.21% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 03 2020 | 16768 | 244983 | 555 | 49 | 2937 | 3947 |
| November 04 2020 | 16963 | 246093 | 564 | 51 | 2837 | 3842 |
| November 05 2020 | 17295 | 246986 | 572 | 50 | 2990 | 3980 |
| November 06 2020 | 17807 | 248063 | 590 | 53 | 3247 | 4252 |
| November 07 2020 | 18274 | 249427 | 596 | 55 | 3345 | 4443 |
| November 08 2020 | 18523 | 250330 | 602 | 55 | 3370 | 4397 |
| November 09 2020 | 18797 | 251218 | 604 | 55 | 3276 | 4492 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 19 | 21.7 | 6% | 196 | 0.33% | 255 | 0.42% |
| 10-19 | 44 | 60.3 | 15.3% | 501 | 0.7% | 676 | 0.95% |
| 20-29 | 77 | 88.1 | 24.6% | 805 | 0.77% | 1095 | 1.05% |
| 30-39 | 32 | 56.7 | 15.4% | 506 | 0.66% | 702 | 0.92% |
| 40-49 | 36 | 52.1 | 13.6% | 447 | 0.68% | 611 | 0.93% |
| 50-59 | 31 | 38.0 | 10.8% | 353 | 0.54% | 524 | 0.8% |
| 60-69 | 17 | 24.9 | 7.2% | 236 | 0.43% | 311 | 0.57% |
| 70+ | 18 | 28.1 | 7.1% | 232 | 0.47% | 318 | 0.65% |
| All ages | 274 | 370.0 | 100% | 3276 | 0.6% | 4492 | 0.82% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 03 2020 | 238067 | 1861962 | 11844 | 2102 | 43527 | 59585 |
| November 04 2020 | 244002 | 1872295 | 12087 | 2156 | 45836 | 61315 |
| November 05 2020 | 249924 | 1881813 | 12310 | 2194 | 48875 | 63824 |
| November 06 2020 | 256065 | 1896457 | 12554 | 2256 | 49754 | 65587 |
| November 07 2020 | 263130 | 1908320 | 12727 | 2301 | 53004 | 68590 |
| November 08 2020 | 267410 | 1916801 | 12839 | 2312 | 52414 | 69244 |
| November 09 2020 | 271770 | 1926518 | 12939 | 2329 | 51678 | 70721 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 199 | 220.9 | 3.9% | 2022 | 0.32% | 2717 | 0.42% |
| 10-19 | 605 | 632.4 | 11.2% | 5788 | 0.76% | 7710 | 1.02% |
| 20-29 | 810 | 1013.3 | 17.9% | 9254 | 1.22% | 12376 | 1.64% |
| 30-39 | 660 | 894.0 | 15.8% | 8151 | 1.08% | 11211 | 1.48% |
| 40-49 | 568 | 841.0 | 14.7% | 7621 | 1.09% | 10435 | 1.49% |
| 50-59 | 613 | 872.6 | 15.6% | 8038 | 0.99% | 11218 | 1.38% |
| 60-69 | 470 | 620.7 | 11.1% | 5745 | 0.76% | 8005 | 1.06% |
| 70+ | 435 | 544.3 | 9.8% | 5059 | 0.79% | 7049 | 1.1% |
| All ages | 4360 | 5639.1 | 100% | 51678 | 0.89% | 70721 | 1.21% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 173.1 | 188.9 | 179.7 | 148 | 115.1 | 35.4% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 196 | 109.6 | 72.9 | 42.5% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 189.4 | 75.9 | 40.4 | 45.5% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 121.1 | 102.1 | 146.6 | 128.6 | 57.9 | 31.4% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 82.2 | 95.1 | 105.4 | 370 | 262.6 | 25.2% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 121.5 | 101.9 | 163.5 | 5639.1 | 4128 | 33.1% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 9.8 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.44 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-11-30 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 2318"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges